'04 CLASSIC D2 Fall/Spring 2017-18

The 2017/18 Classic D2 season is here! No more age pure- it's time to settle in and play. Here's a look at this years sides and their current"Youth Soccer Rankings":

ATLETICO ESPAÑOL 33.33 -  rough outing at the DTSC Summer Festival, was getting some soft minutes at the Arlington tournament over Labor Day enough to get back on track?  

CHELSEA EAST 36.12 - highly productive off season and impressive tournament performances. (Shame they weren't in Bracket 3?) Lost some important players, but signed some new equally high level talent. Perennial favorite to challenge for promotion.

DALLAS TIGRES 33.47 - had a 4/5 goal differential in the PLDI Silver bracket.

FCD NORTH BLUE 32.80 - two good tournament performances in the off season.  

FCD YOUTH RED 32.20 - rough off season with limited action including a 1/22 goal differential in the King TUT. 

FCD YOUTH WEST 35.46 - Kang did well during the open transfer window after losing some valuable players.  Look to challenge for the top spot in D2. 

FCD ETX 33.37 - a very productive off season and enter League play with momentum after winning the PLDI Silver. That's 6 games, will they come out flat in week 1 vs FC Premiere?

FC PREMIERE OPOKU 34.39 - strong tournament performances over the break. Is the team is ready to challenge for promotion? Could the PLDI turn out diffrently if they were in Bracket 3?

LIVERPOOL TOSHACK 35.39 - looks to have had the most hectic off season with multiple tournament appearances and the move to Liverpool from Xtreme.

SOLAR HAYLOCK 33.42 - limited success in 3 tournament appearances. Are they saving it for Classic and look to challenge for promotion?

GOOD LUCK AND QUALITY MINUTES TO ALL THIS CLASSIC SEASON!!

Ah, the bracket 3 conspiracy. Good thing league is starting so you can stop dwelling on that. Good luck!

WEEK 2
Liverpool 4- 2 FCD Kang, came out and surprised West, probably tired legs from the previous weekend's deep run in the tournament? It does not get any easier in Week 2.

FCD Red 1-7 Chelsea East, the promoted team came out with a statement win. Can they match that performance this week?  

Atletico 1-5 FCD Molina, Blue came out with their biggest offensive output in a Classic game in recent memory. Looked very organized.

Tigres 1-7 Solar Haylock, was it that one was so bad or that the other one so good? Solar will be catching an angry opponent coming up next.

FC Premiere 1-2 FCD ETX, Premier may be another one that came out flat? Their convincing 3-0 win vs eventual champion Rangel last week points to that. They could have benefited with a more favorable draw? Anybody?

SOLAR HAYLOCK vs. FC PREMIERE
Premiere's athleticism and fear of opening at 0/2 will provide a tough match up for Solar in Week 2 so that is our Match of the Week!

WEEK 3
Dallas Tigres vs. FCD ETX looks to be easy work for Osborne's crew whose defense has only allowed 2 goals.  Contrast that with the Tigres inability to find the back of the net having only scored once. This could get ugly?

FCD Red vs. FCD Kang is the opportunity game of the week since one team will have the opportunity to get into the win column. 

FC Premiere vs. FCD Molina showcases two contenders with strong, rosters.  Which team has the edge? 

Athletico Español vs. Chelsea East is simple math. Athletico is averaging 1 goal scored per game and allowing 4.5 goals per game. Kang found a way to slow down the front runners, can Atletico?

LIVERPOOL TOSHACK vs SOLAR HAYLOCK- who find themselves for the second week in a row in our Match of the Week!  
Both have played Tigres with Solar posting more robust numbers; 7-1 against Liverpool's 4-0. These two recently met in tournament play and the Reds won 2-1. But this is league play- which team wants it more? With a win Solar can right the ship and be at 2-1, but a loss drops them to 1-2 and on an early path into the relegation zone.  

After this week's games we fire up the calculator and crank out the season's first Gameday Power Rankings! 

With the first 3 games of the season in the books it is time to crank out the Gameday Power Ratings for Division 2.

Every goal made and conceded is factored into every game won, lost or tied using this equation:
(Average Goal Differential) +1 point per win -1 point per loss + 1/2 point for ties DIVIDED BY 2 = GPR

This is a tool to compare each team in this Division only factoring each offensive and defensive performance and game outcome. Every goal is accounted for in the GPR.

HOWEVER, with only 3 games played you may notice the teams at the top of the list have played the lowest league performers. The other way of looking at it that the teams toward the bottom have had the toughest draws so far?

GPR. TEAM.
3.3 Chelsea East
2.8 FCD Molina.
 1.9  FCD ETX
 1.3 Solar Haylock.
 1.1 Liverpool Toshack
-0.5 FCD Kang.
-0.6 FC Premiere  
-2.4 Dallas Tigres
-3.1 FCD Red.
-3.3 Athletico Espańol  

That's the thing about data sets and calculations on probabilities. There is an inverse relationship between expected outcome and the size and quality of the data.

In the first year of CL, power rankings can be used to visualize the results of the seeding process. Now that the teams are separated into 3 groups of 10, each year, the teams naturally separate themselves after 4 or 5 games and power rankings become more about data for the sake of data. Don't get me wrong, I love data and eat it for breakfast every morning. LOL!

MORE DATA!
Having only 3 data points to generate the GPR doesn't tell the complete story for this young season. So on a hunch we did pull the numbers on showing STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE. So as we suspected, the front runners had the benefit of playing the lower end of the schedule. BUT, still it is entirely too early to read too much into the numbers. Are the front runners going to stay up top? Will the bottom third teams move up under more favorable scheduling?

Each team is listed and beside it 3 numbers which represent the current placing of the opponents that they played in their first three games;

Chelsea East 9/6/10
FCD Molina 10/9/7
FCD ETX 7/10/8
Solar Haylock 8/7/5
Liverpool Toshack  6/8/4
FCD Kang   5/1/9
FC Premiere   3/4/2
Dallas Tigres 4/5/3 
FCD Red   1/2/6
Athletico Espańol  2/3/1 (By far the toughest schedule!)

Hang in there boys- plenty of football to be played!

ROUND 4 & 5
It's incredible how fast the season is progressing and by this Sunday the first 1/2 of the Fall season will be in the books. Here are some teams and games to keep an eye on;

FCD Kang vs. FCD Molina looks to be a telling match moving forward. Will Kang get to 2-2 while dealing Molina it's first loss of the sesson?

LIVERPOOL vs CHELSEA EAST are two teams that are familiar with one another from their previous clashes in D3 when Liverpool was Texas Xtreme.  Both teams have had turnover and the games are always competitive so this is our MID-WEEK GAME OF THE WEEK!!

DALLAS TIGRES vs ATHLETICO ESPAŃOL either fortunately or unfortunately may be the first win of the season for one of these teams- depending on how you look at it? ECHALE GANAS!

FCD ETX vs FCD Kang - these FCD matches are always interesting. Kang can get above .500 with two wins this week.

FCD Molina vs. CHELSEA EAST rounds out Round 5 and our MATCH OF THE WEEK! The two best defensive clubs in Div. 2 go head to head, does Molina have the right plan to slow down the frontrunners or does C.E. keep its foot on the gas toward promotion?

GAMEDAY POWER RATINGS / AFTER 6 GAMES COMPLETED
The point system is a distribution of how many points above or below each team is from the average.  There is a huge gap of separation between the leader and the rest of the top half.  

5.2 Chelsea East - can anyone challenge them? 
1.6 Solar Haylock - can they run with C.E. this week?
1.3 FCD Kang - have 1 challenging game left in the first half.
1.1 Liverpool Toshack - ready to make a run?
1.1 FC Premiere - coming up on the tough part of the schedule.
0.7 FCD ETX - challenging stretch in the next 3 games.
-0.3 FCD Molina - can they put together solid minutes to get to a positive goal differential?
-1.5 Dallas Tigres - barely getting to the tough part of the schedule.
-3.2 FCD Red - it doesn't get any easier.
-4.5 Athletico Español - did they have a lot of turnover? 

Still lots of minutes to play!

With only 2 games left in the Fall season, here's a projection on where the teams will end up at the break on points;

27      Chelsea East will complete its sweep of the first half.
18-21 FCD Kang needs to get past a hungry FC Premiere.
16-19 Liverpool finishes against the other 2 FCD squads.
13-16 FCD ETX has a tough final two games.
15-18 Solar Haylock can make a move up the standings. 
11-14 FC Premiere with the toughest remaining schedule.
9-12  FCD Molina can gain with a win thos Saturday.
5-8   Dallas Tigres can pick up 3 pts, next weekend.
2-6   FCD Red has a chance to pick up 3 pts. vs Athletico.
0-3  Athletico Español has a chance for it's first win?

DIVISION 2 FALL GAMEDAY POWER RATINGS
This is where the teams ended up with their respective Gameday Power Ratings for the Fall season. Can the ratings number give us some insight moving forward into the Spring and ultimately promotion and relegation? 

You will notice that the 3rd and 4th Place teams jumped the 2nd Place team. How and why is this significant? This is precisely how the Gameday Power Rating guages the performance vs the entire league factoring every game and goal.  When you consider that only two teams will win promotion into D1, there is the slimmest of margin in the relatively short season.  

It is a foregone conclusion that Chelsea East will gain promotion so we are really only looking at the one additional available spot. Realistically, there are 5 candidates for that coveted second spot and they are only separated by 4 points on the table.  The "average" team is Solar at 0.7 making all others X rating points above or X rating points below average; 

6.3 Chelsea East -  Why doesn't FC DALLAS Premier take them up on their offer for a scrimmage? 
2.8 Liverpool Toshack, the third place team jumped over 2nd Place FCD Kang due in part to the +15 goal differential, 1.6 GD average.  
2.2 FCD ETX, the fourth place team jumped over the second place team due in part to only losing twice.  
2.0 FCD Kang sits in 2nd place for now but promotion will sort itself out on the pitch in the Spring season in the head to head matchups. 
1.2  FC Premiere, the sixth place team jumped over the 5th place Solar team due in part to one less loss.  They will have to do more offensively to realistically challenge for promotion.  
0.7 Solar Haylock,  of the top half teams this is the weakest defensive squad by a wide margin.  
-0.8 FCD Molina appears to be safely staying in D2.
##### RELEGATION ZONE #####
As promotion will sort itself out on the pitch, so will the 2 teams that get relegated- these three candidates must find a way to out play one another as they only produced 2 wins in 27 games.  
-2.8 Dallas Tigres
-4.0 FCD Red 
-5.0 Athletico Español

Have a great Fall tournament season but find some time to get away from the game for a while for rest and relaxation!  

Let's get the 2017-18 Spring Claasic Div. 2 season started.  Relegation and promotion are in play for at least 7 of the 10 teams in play. 

2 pts.  FCD Red
3 pts.  Athletico Espanol
5 pts.  Dallas Tigres 
ALL 3 are squarely in the relegation zone and the outcome will be decided head to head.
12 pts. FCD Molina - will they stay out of the relegation zone?
14 pts. FC Premiere - can the make a move?
15 pts. Solar Haylock - can they replicate surprise wins from the Fall?
17 pts. FCD ETX - only 2 losses in the Fall shows their grit. Can they create an offense though? They were only better than the relegation zone teams in scoring goals.
17 pts. Liverpool - played well in the Michael Bown vs Kang and Chelsea East. Are they a serious contender?
18 pts. FCD Kang - they've got 2 teams seriously knipping at their heels. Expect the Club to stock important games with DA players? So is it really their roster team winning or The Club?
27 pts. Chelsea East - will be nice to see them in D1 next season, well earned and deserved.

GAME OF THE WEEK- 
FCD Kang vs. Liverpool who actually played in the Michael Brown with Liverpool winning. Who knows what DA players were rostered in? The rematch may come down to the club pass?  We predict- a great game!

Good luck and safe play to all this season!! 

Just to clarify, Per Classic League rules a club pass for a D2 team must be from a D3 or Plano league team. In addition FC Dallas does not allow DA players to guest play.

Well, since no one else wants to chime in, I'll add my dos pesos here.

From what I can tell over time is that the top two teams from D3 last season - Chelsea East SC (Calvillo) and FCD West (Kang) - seemed to sail on through to D1 with some very good resistance from last years' Texas Xtreme (now Liverpool Toshack) who has always been very competitive and FCD ETX (Osborne) who showed up with an impressive late half-season surge, surprising even Kang, but it just wasn't enough to surpass and receive a promotion to D1. They will likely be one of the key teams to beat in D2 next year, along with Liverpool.

All in all, the rainy February & March months caused some added drama as many games were rescheduled and so the predictions were a bit of a nail-biter.

Rumors of FCD West (Kang) having Academy players were summarily dismissed as Alternative Facts, as it is against FCD rules, however another (nameless) team was somehow able to slip their #1 striker into the roster who is a confirmed academy player, but that's neither here nor there, now that CL season is officially in the books. They will have to try again next year for promotion, hopefully fairly.

As for D1 next year, it looks like it will be the "FC Dallas & Texans Show", for as far as I can tell, there will be 4 FCD teams, 3 Texans teams - along with FC Premier, Dallas Kicks Seleçao, and Chelsea East SC.

Unfortunately for FCD Red (Lopez) and Athletico Español (Burciaga), they will be relegated to D3, but they will likely regroup with some new player combinations and bounce back nicely.

Coming up from D3 to D2 will be the gutsy Rayos 04B which started strong last season and barely missed the promotion cut to D2 - and super tough FC Premier Yellow (Smith) - formerly Fallstown out of Wichita Falls. Congrats boys!

As for new D1 teams, a hearty CONGRATULATIONS to boys of Chelsea East SC (Calvillo) and FCD West (Kang) for their hard work, dedication and guts to take it from D3 to D1 in short order. Congrats and Thank You to the managers & parents for their time sacrifices, instruction and encouragement.  

The reality is that all the boys should be congratulated - and I don't just mean that in a "Participatory" type way - but a genuine chest-bump BOOYAH to the teams, coaches, managers and parents for making Classic League a growing source of competitive excitement for the Beautiful Sport.

PS: Stay tuned for North Texas Soccer State Cup Tournament, as there are many teams from CL who stand a chance to represent Texas in North Carolina and again in the Nationals, right back in Frisco, TX.

Cheers!

Nice analysis. Do you have insight on the Ayses Gold one and done? They dominated their way to get promoted from D2, I was was surprised to see then end table but did not see them after promotion.

Any insight on the teams needing players? How about D3 news? Also heard Solar lost its fields. True?

Sometimes career changes take their toll on one's hobby activities, so thank you for those who at least read the thead. A big shout-out to Soccer Daddio for a great end of season recap!

In my time away my magic calculator called out to me with a special challenge- instead of only cranking out a Spring Gameday Power Rating, why not create a new number which points toward the entire strength of season performance?

The new number will be calculated as:
Fall Power Rating + Spring Power Rating divided by 2 giving us an Annual Gameday Power Rating.

Again, this only works within the sample of the 10 teams inside of Div. 2, but will identify teams who were trending up or down in the Spring and overall annual performance.

CHELSEA EAST
FALL 6.3 SPRING 4.8
ANNUAL GPR = 5.6
Strong performance from begining to the end and as predicted long ago, will be in D1 where this squad belongs!

FCD KANG
FALL 2.0 SPRING 4.3
ANNUAL GPR = 3.2
Nobody had a bigger surge this Spring improving over 2 full ratings points. This pointed their way to their earned spot in D1. Congratulations to both promoted teams!

FCD ETX
FALL 2.2 SPRING 2.3
ANNUAL GPR = 2.3
Consistency, consistency, consistency led the way to this squads solid third place finish.

LIVERPOOL
FALL 2.8 SPRING -0.5
ANNUAL GPR = 1.2
Their zero goal differential this Spring led to a dropoff for this team who is a familiar foe to many. Should bounce back.

FC PREMIERE
FALL 1.2 SPRING 0.6
ANNUAL GPR = 0.9
This team that was also trending down this Spring managed to stay above average.

SOLAR HAYLOCK
FALL 0.7 SPRING 1.9
ANNUAL GPR 1.3
The beauty of the numbers indicate that despite finishing in 6th place, Solar had the fourth best Spring rating AND a fourth best Annual GPR.

FCD MOLINA
FALL -0.8 SPRING 0.3
ANNUAL GPR = -0.2
An improved effort in the Spring kept this team well clear of the relegation zone.

DALLAS TIGRES
FALL -2.8 SPRING 0.1
ANNUAL GPR = -1.3
With improvement of almost 3 points this Spring, this was the most improved team in Div 2 from the Fall to Spring. This surge kept them free of relegation.

FCD RED
FALL -4 SPRING -2.8
ANNUAL GPR = -3.4
Relegated.

ATHLETICO ESPAÑOL
FALL -5 SPRING -6
ANNUAL GPR = -5.5
Relegated.

Congratulations to all players, familes and their coaches. Despite on where any team finished, these young men are talented and dedicated athletes playing the beautiful game in north Texas. My advice is to take enough time off to mentally reset and give those young bodies time to rest.

Best wishes,

Gameday 04