CLASSIC D3 PROMOTION / RELEGATION ZONE 2017

CLASSIC D3 PROMOTION / RELEGATION ZONE 2017
The Spring season is here and with it the stakes are raised. In a window of just seven weeks two teams will punch their ticket into D2, two teams will face the realization of another year at the status quo, and six teams will go back into the qualification mixer. The math is simple, one extremely good team is going to be left behind for another year in D3. Six teams are going to be left scratching their heads asking what just happened?

Here is a quick glance at each team's Fall season Gameday Power Rating and each team's activity over the winter break;
6.3  CHELSEA EAST- productive off season for the champions of the Round Rock Open and the Michael Brown Winter Classic. They are on a roll, can anybody play them close?
3.8  FCD KANG- runners up in the Round Rock Open and the Bronze champions of the Michael Brown Winter Classic look to keep the momentum into the Spring but face their arch rival in Game 1. Can they pull off  the big upset?
3.4  TEXAS XTREME- productive off season champions of the NTX Fall Challenge beating a D2 side and a third place finish in the League Challenge Cup. Can they step up and mount a serious challenge into the promotion zone?
2.2  RAYOS (16 pts.) fourth place finishers in the League Challenge Cup with a 7/13 goal differential, but beat D2's second place team Fever United. This team got hot late in the Spring and open against their rival Xtreme.  
1.4    FALLS TOWN (16 pts.)  no registered activity during the break.  With only 3 losses in the Fall can they improve their goal differential enough to evade relegation?
-0.6 CRUSH (12 pts.) under performed in the Blue Cup during the break. Will the team who has Kang's number put together a complete season and get out of the relegation zone?
-1.4   SOLAR CHELSEA (8 pts.) earned a third place finish in the Bronze division of the Michael Brown Winter Classic.  Are they within striking distance of the safe zone? 
-2.9  TEXAS TOROS (9 pts.) no registered activity during the break.
-4.0  FCD TOP (4 pts.) no registered activity during the break.
-6.3  EVOLUTION- second place Fall Premier Cup Bronze Div.

Games of the week featuring two heavy weight bouts:
Chelsea East vs FCD Kang
Texas Xtreme vs Rayos

Good luck to all this season!

THE FIREWORKS HAVE STARTED!
I watched a lot of games and I'll re-visit the D3 vs. D2 topic after this quick rundown;
Chelsea East 4 - 2 FCD Kang
The game was not as close as the score indicated. C.E. imposed their will, how will Kang respond?
Rayos 4 - 0 Xtreme
I had previewed that this team got hot in the Spring and caught Xtreme flatfooted, can they regroup?
Toros 2 - 0 Evolution
It was evenly matched and Evo has improved with possession.
Fallls Town 2 - 2 Solar Chelsea
Not the way you want to start the season.

I had the opportunity to scan some of the D2 games and is it just me? Is anyone else asking how or why this is occurring? A few D3 teams faced D2 teams during the break and routinely beat them. After watching yesterdays games, in my opinion;
Chelsea East- it is unjust that they will only be promoted into D2 when this is clearly a D1 level squad,
FCD Kang- is playing at the level of the top two teams of D2,
Xtreme- also playing at the level of the top two teams of D2 considering their size, skill and speed,
Rayos- is playing mid level D2 now,
Falls Town- would push half of D2 to the limit with their speed and physicality.

DOES THE LEAGUE ACKNOWLEDGE THIS?
DOES THE LEAGUE CARE AND WOULD RECONSIDER RE-SEEDING THIS OFF SEASON?

Should teams actually try to stay in D3 just to play a more competitive schedule??

I dont see the league rewriting their rules because some D3 parent feels there is an unjust seeding for next year. With the league going age pure this year they knew they threw a monkey wrench into the system that would take 2 years at least for the dust to settle. If CE is that good than next year they will win D2 and move up to D1 for U15. Thats how the rules are written. Thats the system we have. For what you are saying you would need all the big clubs fcd, texans, solar and lp to buy into a reseeding. That wont happen. You can always try to petition Classic. Let us know what they say. I'd bet it would start like this, "thank you for your concerns, if you dont like our league their is 2 more you can try, plano and arlington" Good luck with your fight but to me it just sounds like a lot of sour grapes.

You make mostly fair points and you're right the rules are not going to be rewritten and threaten the balance between the big clubs.
I guess some people don't have any problem at all with results such as PLANO PREMIERE team FCD Gold beating the CLASSIC DIVISION 2 frontrunner Ayses Gold 4-2 in a tournament final?

Nothing wrong with that?
Nothing at all.

It happens all the time in every age group. Lower ranked teams beating higher ones. Thats sports. Thats why i dont bet anymore. You point to 1 game do you know the circumstances? It was the finals of a long weekend, right? Did ayses already play them and beat them once? Were they at 100% or were they battling through some injuries? Did fcd have 5 guest players from their premier team? My point is anyone can beat anyone on any given Sunday. Thats how sports is. If your team is back in D3 next year its not the end of the world. You can always play in tournaments gold brackets to push your team if your worried that D3 is below you. The way you make D3 sound is that next year it should be highly competitive and have 2 more teams get promoted to D2. Thats exactly what Classic wants in D3. A developmental division of teams that can move up and succeed.

Gameday 04 wrote:You make mostly fair points and you're right the rules are not going to be rewritten and threaten the balance between the big clubs.
I guess some people don't have any problem at all with results such as PLANO PREMIERE team FCD Gold beating the CLASSIC DIVISION 2 frontrunner Ayses Gold 4-2 in a tournament final?

Nothing wrong with that?
Nothing at all.

No, there's nothing wrong with that at all. A lower division team has a good game against a higher division team in a mid-level tournament. Congrats! It doesn't automatically mean FCD Gold belongs in D1 or at least at the top of D2. It also doesn't mean Ayses Gold belongs in Plano.

Although, I will acknowledge there is parity between mid D1 and the top of D3. Especially now that Classic League is the new Plano and Plano is the new rec league. Many of the difference makers have already moved on, and next year CL will be decimated. Lots of teams will be poached, dismantled and otherwise regrouped over the Summer. Your path to D1 will be easier than ever...if you stay intact!

Seems to me the wins by top D3 teams have been against bottom ranked D1 or D2 teams with bad losing records. So as expected some of the D1 and D2 teams did not cope well with the age pure shift and are out of their depth. Hardly warrants throwing out the rulebook though.
If the D3 teams are that good they will waltz through D2 to D1 (as others have done before them) even though it gets significantly harder playing middle and top teams week in week out.

Of course the age pure mandate threw a monkey wrench into the mix, add to that DA, add to that puberty... More changes to come in 2017!

Classic should revisit how they promote teams. Honestly, I think what should happen is the following. At the end of fall, the top two teams and bottom two teams from each division should move up or down to the next division. For D3 the bottom two teams get a pass since we cant have challenge games in the middle of winter. So teams like Chelsea and FCD Kang would move up to D2 in the spring. If Chelsea is as good as they appear then at the end of the Spring they could move up to D1. Better way of righting the ship and putting teams where they belong. Xtreme, Falls Town, and Rayos would still have the Spring to place in the top 2 to move up to D2. More fluid, gives the teams a better shot at advancing up two divisions (or dropping 2 divisions within a year).

Too funny! Let's change the rules so an '04 D3 team can get to D1 where they belong. No, you're where you are for a reason and not because the system shafted your team.

And some said the 04 crazy parents had gone soft. Let's get this party started!!

"It happens all the time in every age group. Lower ranked teams beating higher ones. Thats sports. Thats why i dont bet anymore."
PEOPLE BET ON YOUTH SOCCER?!?!
"Although, I will acknowledge there is parity between mid D1 and the top of D3."
FINALLY, THANK YOU!
"Seems to me the wins by top D3 teams have been against bottom ranked D1 or D2 teams with bad losing records."
D3 IS BEATING THE TOP OF D2 ROUTINELY
"At the end of fall, the top two teams and bottom two teams from each division should move up or down to the next division."
WOULDN'T THIS APPROACH CREATE THE RIGHT COMPETITIVE ATMOSPHERE IF IT WAS FOLLOWED EVERY YEAR?

Gameday 04 wrote:
"Although, I will acknowledge there is parity between mid D1 and the top of D3."
FINALLY, THANK YOU!

YOU'RE WELCOME, BUT IT WASN'T A COMPLIMENT. CLASSIC LEAGUE HAS GOTTEN THAT BAD AND YOUR TEAM MAY PROVE IT!!

Only two games in and the separation has begun.  Here are the point totals and Spring goal differential.

PTS.                   GOAL DIFF.
33 Chelsea East.   +7
24 FCD Kang.       -1
22 Xtreme.         +1
22 Rayos.           +5
---------------------------------
17 Falls Town. -1
12 Crush.         -2
12 Toros.           -3
9 Solar Chelsea -1
7 FCD Topletz.   -4
3. Evolution.     -1

This next weekend will feature extra action with two games scheduled for all teams, Gameday Power Ratings posted next week. 

Gameday 04 wrote:"At the end of fall, the top two teams and bottom two teams from each division should move up or down to the next division."
WOULDN'T THIS APPROACH CREATE THE RIGHT COMPETITIVE ATMOSPHERE IF IT WAS FOLLOWED EVERY YEAR?

I would say they should do it every year. All these teams would have played each other once already and the same teams in their division so you would have had your shot to move upwards.

Gameday 04 wrote:
D3 IS BEATING THE TOP OF D2 ROUTINELY

Really? Do you have evidence to back up this claim? And it better not be Alternative Facts.....

LISTING OF ALL RECENT D3 vs. D2/D1 MATCHUPS

LEAGUE CHALLENGE CUP
RAYOS 2 - 1   D2 FEVER UNITED 
XTREME 7 - 2  D2 FEVER UNITED

MICHAEL BROWN WINTER CLASSIC
RAYOS 4 - 1   D1 LIVERPOOL DAGLISH
RAYOS  3 - 0  D1 FCD RED
RAYOS  6 - 0  D2 FCD NORTH BLUE

NTX FALL CHALLENGE
XTREME 2 - 0  D2 FC PREMIERE 

DTSC FALL FESTIVAL
FCD KANG  0 - 1  D1 DALLAS TEXANS 
FCD KANG  8 - 0  D2 FCD NORTH BLUE

7-1 Record head to head
32/5 Goals For/Goals Against

Rayos did not play those teams in Michael brown- just fyi. The team that did play, well lets say the team looked a little different, older than what it did during regular season play.  but i love your passion for this crap...its mostly like u r having a conversation with yourself- 95% of the time. thanks for bringing the "passion"(crazy) back to the 04"s

Rayos did not play those teams in Michael brown- just fyi

YOU ARE 100% RIGHT- IT WAS CHELSEA EAST THAT SMACKED EVERYBODY AROUND IN THAT TOURNAMENT. SO YOUR ASSERTION OF THEM LOOKING OLDER IS PUZZLING?
AS ALWAYS I STAND BY THE NUMBERS;
7-1 RECORD D3 vs. D2/D1
+27 GOAL DIFFERENTIAL

(Call it what you will- as a writer I had over 1,200 readers last week so it's hardly a conversation by myself. It's more like 95% raw numbers and 5% commentary. But thank you for your comment.)

Just to make sure you understand the numbers, 1,200 is not the number of unique visitors. It could be that 1,150 of those "readers" are you clicking on this thread.

AND STOP SCREAMING! YOUR TEAM BELONGS IN D1. WE GET IT.

LOL!!

Gameday 04 wrote:LISTING OF ALL RECENT D3 vs. D2/D1 MATCHUPS

LEAGUE CHALLENGE CUP
RAYOS 2 - 1   D2 FEVER UNITED 2nd in D2
XTREME 7 - 2  D2 FEVER UNITED 2nd in D2

MICHAEL BROWN WINTER CLASSIC
CHELSEA E. 4 - 1   D1 LIVERPOOL DAGLISH Not top of D2. 8th in D1
CHELSEA E.  3 - 0  D1 FCD RED Not top of D2. 10th in D1
CHELSEA E.  6 - 0  D2 FCD NORTH BLUE Not top of D2. 9th in D2

NTX FALL CHALLENGE
XTREME 2 - 0  D2 FC PREMIERE  Not top of D2. 4th in D2

DTSC FALL FESTIVAL
FCD KANG  0 - 1  D1 DALLAS TEXANS Not in D2. 4th in D1 and beat the D3 team.
FCD KANG  8 - 0  D2 FCD NORTH BLUE Not top of D2. 9th in D2

7-1 Record head to head
32/5 Goals For/Goals Against

OK Kellyanne, as expected you came back with alternative facts. You said that D3 was routinely beating the top of D2.

But you have only provided 2 games against the top of D2, both versus Fever. Hardly "routinely". And beating the 9th and 10th teams in D1 does not extrapolate to beating the top of D2.

It's time to get past the palaver of what constitutes "the top". Apparently the number 2 of a set does not constitute the top in the eyes of some so for clarity let's reapproach the actual matter at hand;
DIVISION 3 IS ROUTINELY BEATING DIVISION 2 AND DIVISION 1 TEAMS IN RECENT HEAD TO HEAD PLAY.

And now to the games- the finality of the Promotion or Relegation will not be finalized over THIS WEEKEND. However THIS WEEKEND will set the teams toward their predictable path.

CHELSEA EAST throw it in cruise control vs. The #5 and #8 team in the league.
FCD KANG will have a tune up on Saturday and then will they be pushed to their limit vs. Rayos?
XTREME face their rival Falls Town for their rematch of the imfamous rain make up game.
RAYOS meet up with the upstart Evolution then their attention turns to what could be their second statement win of the Spring season. Are the Rayos for real?
-----------------------------------------------------------
FALLS TOWN has the toughest draw of the weekend facing Xtreme and Chelsea East. Ouch!
CRUSH (12 pts.) meet up with Toros and Xtreme.
TOROS (12 pts.) meet up with Crush and Solar Chelsea- which team will hold onto the #6 spot?
SOLAR CHELSEA 9 pts. Can the get into double digits?
FCD TOPLETZ 7 pts. Can they get into double digits?
EVOLUTION 3 pts. Are they the spoiler?

GAMEDAY POWER RATINGS COMING UP NEXT AFTER THIS WEEKEND!!

The Gameday Power Rating has broken down all 10 teams and their 4 Spring season games accounting each goal, goal conceded and game result. (The rating number is a guage to compare only the teams within Division 3.)

3.1  CHELSEA EAST is the top ranked team and has the highest goal differential in this Spring season and are almost guaranteed a promotion.
2.0  RAYOS are the second highest rated team having only allowed 2 goals so far this Spring and currently sitting safely in fourth place.
1.9  FCD KANG is currently in second place and is looking squarely at promotion having already played the Division's #1 and #4 teams.
1.8  XTREME is the fourth ranked team, currently sitting in 3rd place and yet to face off with the frontrunners. 
------------
0.3  SOLAR CHELSEA has had a competitive start this Spring season but point-wise still sit in 7th place.
-0.6 FCD TOPLETZ also a competitive start with 2 wins and 2 losses still sits in 9th place.
-1   CRUSH 
-1.8 FALLS TOWN
-2.4 EVOLUTION
-2.4 TOROS 

Are you looking at your team's chances of promotion or perhaps relegation? Are you forecasting the number of wins needed or what an extra loss could cost? Wondering how tough your schedule is in comparison to your rivals? 

Here's a look at each team's strength of schedule using each teams current position on the Table:

CHELSEA EAST faces number 8, 6, 10, 3
FCD KANG faces number 6, 10, 3, 7
------------------
XTREME faces number 9, 7, 2,1
RAYOS faces number 5, 9, 8,6
------------------
FALLS TOWN faces number 4, 8, 6, 10
CRUSH faces number 2, 1, 5, 4
SOLAR CHELSEA faces number 10, 3, 9, 2
TOROS faces number 1, 5, 4, 9
FCD TOPLETZ faces number 3, 4, 7, 8
EVOLUTION faces number 7, 2, 1, 5

Good luck to all!

With a two game schedule again this week a few teams fate will be settled. Games to keep an eye on;
SATURDAY
FCD KANG vs CRUSH - what is it about these two? Toss the rankings out the window because Crush seems to have Kang's number?
FALLS TOWN vs RAYOS- the #5 F.T. is in a must win situation in order to evade relegation. Does it start today for them?
XTREME vs FCD TOPLETZ- in order to challenge for promotion Xtreme basically needs to win out. Does that run start today?
SUNDAY
XTREME vs SOLAR CHELSEA- Xtreme needs win in order to set up their final two games which will be de facto playoff games for promotion.
FCD TOPLETZ vs RAYOS (March 11) Los Rayos need that win to evade the relegation zone.

GOOD LUCK TO ALL AND HAVE A SAFE SPRING BREAK.

A big shout out to all the DIVISION 3 teams taking it to DIVISION 2 at the PRESIDENTS CUP. Most notably #5 FALLS TOWN beating #1 AYSES GOLD 2-0.
Yes, just to clarify- the #5 team in D3 who is fighting to stay out of relegation zone, beat the #1 team in D2 who will be promoted to D1 next year. What's most important here is congrats to Falls Town for always bringing it!

Here are the D3 vs D2 matchups so far;
DIV 3. DIV 2 SCORE
#5 F.T. #1 Ayses Gold. 2-0
#6 Sol/Chelsea. #2 Fever United 0-0
#3 FCD Kang. #2 Fever United 4-0
#1 Chelsea E. #4 Athletico Esp. 4-1

More games to come, have a safe Spring Break!